July 22, 2024
Credible polling results for the July 28 presidential elections give a strong lead to the opposition candidate, Edmundo González.
However, we see unchanged disincentives for a political transition given the potential prosecution of members of the ruling coalition and the loss of access to corruption opportunities.
In our view, these disincentives extend to the military and other security forces, and we don’t expect a break in the ruling coalition.
We expect Maduro to remain in power through fraudulent means and employ whatever level of violence necessary to suppress opposition protests in the aftermath.
HOLD: Our baseline scenario remains one of no restructuring, as the Maduro government lacks incentives to restructure, even assuming the US was to recognize him and lift financial sanctions.
