The Dialogue, April 10, 2026
Pedro Fragoso Pires, foreign legal consultant at Diaz Reus: “The same factors that drove the Brazilian
population to bring Lula back straight from prison in 2022 may bring Bolsonaro’s family back to power is 2026. Unsatisfaction with the current administration and high levels of corruption are driving Flávio Bolsonaro’s rapid rise in the polls. Many people did not vote for their candidate of preference in the latest election, but rather against the other candidate. Factors between now and the election that will decide the outcome are the ability of right-leaning political parties to join forces toward only one candidacy and not compete among themselves, the outcome of the Banco Master investigation and the expected cooperation agreement to be entered into by its controlling shareholder, Daniel Vorcaro, the outcome of an investiga-tion on social security administration fraud and an anticorruption agenda. The dynamics suggest we will see the same polarization of the last presidential election. Third-way candidates want to take advantage of those voters who cannot stand the polarization anymore and this may affect Lula and/or Flávio Bolsonaro.
